Gay marriage: by the numbers
There's been a lot of hoo-ha in the media lately here - from Anwar's remark while on the dock to Jamil's so-called 'call for protest against gay marriage'. I mean, seriously? Is this even an issue in Malaysia?
Firstly, as a Buddhist, this is not an issue to me. Marriage is a social convention that is part of the samsara world. It is what it is, when done well (i.e. a happy marriage), it produces stable individuals who can develop themselves. When done badly (i.e. broken or unhappy marriage), it produces unhappy people - both parents AND kids with long lasting implications. So whether marriage is good, bad, for heterosexuals only, can be for gays also and so on is a pointless debate because the debate does not focus on the actual results.
Of course, on an overall basis, a stable family life produces a well-balanced society. A well-balanced society means a good environment for mental cultivation and reduced suffering. I think a stable family life be it heterosexual or homosexual should be the aim, not so much on the sexuality of the parents.
Now, that bit of (my) pontification aside, let's look at the numbers - using Malaysia as an example:
We have 28 million people right now, lets remember that only 12 million are adults. 16 million are still kids below 18.
So 12 million adults, say 3% are gay. That means only 360,000 adult gays & lesbians.
Now, lets assume only 30% are in long term relationships (although that could be higher if it was legalised) = so lets round it down to 100,000 individuals in relationships, THUS only 50,000 couples. Another way of looking at it is 30% = non-Muslims only.
[of course, there is social impact as well, so if 100,000 people decide to tie the knot, there are 100,000 families who are involved and say an average extended family size of 50 (all the aunts, uncles etc included), then 5 million people would be impacted (negatively or positively, up to their mindset lar, but at this point in time, it is negative, unfortunately. Due to social conditioning.]
So let's go back to our 50,000 couples. Lets say they throw a wedding banquet / party with all the usual stuff: photography, hotels, catering, holidays. I'll low-ball (no pun intended ;p) the total cost figure to RM20,000 given that it could range from very low-key to sky's-the-limit.
RM1.0 Billion in economic activity, friend.
At 6% government tax, legalising same-sex union (ok-la, for sensitivity sake, call it a civil union or shared household partnership or whatever. The word 'marriage' is such a hot button, might as well don't use it) would earn the government RM60 million in taxes. Small potatoes compared to petroleum revenues, natch but not insignificant either.
OK, so lets now count the cost. Of 50,000 couples, say 50% get divorced - hey, just using the current stats on straight marriages, don't blame me. So that's 25,000 more divorces going through the court system. Make them pay court fees lah! (more money earned by govt,)
Not to mention, 50,000 representations by divorce lawyers!! WOW! I honestly don't know how much a divorce costs but lets say RM3,000 (just plucking number out the air, bite me), then that's another RM75 million going into the lawyers' hot little hands! At at effective personal tax rate of 18%, that's another RM13.5 million going to the government in direct earnings.
In sum, by legalising such unions, at the very surface level, there is potential of almost RM1.1 billion added onto the total wedding industry benefiting the F&B, hospitality, travel and legal industries. This does not take into account additional stuff like property purchase, will writing, estate planning, joint insurance coverage and investing as a household (joint income, more savings etc).
So, looking at it from a fairly dispassionate view, gay marriage is good for business. But dealing with the political fall-out is not something ANY politician would want to deal with here, no matter how liberal they may be - 5 million affected people, that's pretty huge.
One solution could be to limit such recognition for non-Muslims only. Thus appeasing most people (except for gay muslims, sorry guys), we look good internationally, Muslim-majority folks get to feel ok (doesn't impact them) and so we all go merrily (dare I say gaily!) along our way.
Omitofo.
Firstly, as a Buddhist, this is not an issue to me. Marriage is a social convention that is part of the samsara world. It is what it is, when done well (i.e. a happy marriage), it produces stable individuals who can develop themselves. When done badly (i.e. broken or unhappy marriage), it produces unhappy people - both parents AND kids with long lasting implications. So whether marriage is good, bad, for heterosexuals only, can be for gays also and so on is a pointless debate because the debate does not focus on the actual results.
Of course, on an overall basis, a stable family life produces a well-balanced society. A well-balanced society means a good environment for mental cultivation and reduced suffering. I think a stable family life be it heterosexual or homosexual should be the aim, not so much on the sexuality of the parents.
Now, that bit of (my) pontification aside, let's look at the numbers - using Malaysia as an example:
We have 28 million people right now, lets remember that only 12 million are adults. 16 million are still kids below 18.
So 12 million adults, say 3% are gay. That means only 360,000 adult gays & lesbians.
Now, lets assume only 30% are in long term relationships (although that could be higher if it was legalised) = so lets round it down to 100,000 individuals in relationships, THUS only 50,000 couples. Another way of looking at it is 30% = non-Muslims only.
[of course, there is social impact as well, so if 100,000 people decide to tie the knot, there are 100,000 families who are involved and say an average extended family size of 50 (all the aunts, uncles etc included), then 5 million people would be impacted (negatively or positively, up to their mindset lar, but at this point in time, it is negative, unfortunately. Due to social conditioning.]
So let's go back to our 50,000 couples. Lets say they throw a wedding banquet / party with all the usual stuff: photography, hotels, catering, holidays. I'll low-ball (no pun intended ;p) the total cost figure to RM20,000 given that it could range from very low-key to sky's-the-limit.
RM1.0 Billion in economic activity, friend.
At 6% government tax, legalising same-sex union (ok-la, for sensitivity sake, call it a civil union or shared household partnership or whatever. The word 'marriage' is such a hot button, might as well don't use it) would earn the government RM60 million in taxes. Small potatoes compared to petroleum revenues, natch but not insignificant either.
OK, so lets now count the cost. Of 50,000 couples, say 50% get divorced - hey, just using the current stats on straight marriages, don't blame me. So that's 25,000 more divorces going through the court system. Make them pay court fees lah! (more money earned by govt,)
Not to mention, 50,000 representations by divorce lawyers!! WOW! I honestly don't know how much a divorce costs but lets say RM3,000 (just plucking number out the air, bite me), then that's another RM75 million going into the lawyers' hot little hands! At at effective personal tax rate of 18%, that's another RM13.5 million going to the government in direct earnings.
In sum, by legalising such unions, at the very surface level, there is potential of almost RM1.1 billion added onto the total wedding industry benefiting the F&B, hospitality, travel and legal industries. This does not take into account additional stuff like property purchase, will writing, estate planning, joint insurance coverage and investing as a household (joint income, more savings etc).
So, looking at it from a fairly dispassionate view, gay marriage is good for business. But dealing with the political fall-out is not something ANY politician would want to deal with here, no matter how liberal they may be - 5 million affected people, that's pretty huge.
One solution could be to limit such recognition for non-Muslims only. Thus appeasing most people (except for gay muslims, sorry guys), we look good internationally, Muslim-majority folks get to feel ok (doesn't impact them) and so we all go merrily (dare I say gaily!) along our way.
Omitofo.
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