Sea change? Disruptive technologies..
You know how sometimes some things seem to appear in the periphery - innovative stuff in some documentary or news shows that is kinda cool but no one really pays attention to it and then boom, it ends up altering everything!
So I wonder, what are the few new or not-so-new technologies that could end up changing the world as we know it? I reckon these are - shale gas, cloud computing and 3-d printing.
Shale gas:
Even though I think that cellulosic ethanol is more sustainable, the current infrastructure favours shale gas production in terms of volume & immediacy. Actually, I think it is a good thing that the US can be energy-independent or at least, rely more on Canada instead of the Middle East. Same goes for Israel too. International politics is going to shift in a big way and frankly, it's about time too. Less money going into the Middle East will force them to come to terms with the real world, no more easy money - time to grow up.
Cloud computing:
More thin client devices that can link up to the cloud for more relevant applications, no need to pay huge license fees to use a fraction of the capabilities. It can jumpstart developing economies in Africa because there is less cost involved in laying out communication infrastructure if they use mobile instead of cables and less cost in fees too.
However, there are information security and privacy issues to address but if mainly used for usual stuff, then it should be ok.
Personally, I would still keep certain things off line just to be safe.
3-D printing:
This is interesting but in terms of cost, I'm not so sure. At the onset, it's still more expensive per unit to print one object versus bulk manufacturing - primarily due to the current set-up in the supply chain. However, if over time, the unit cost can come down then it's likely that instead of having huge factory complexes in one place (e.g. China) and transporting made goods all over the world, we will have 3-D retailers who can produce goods on demand in every town and city. Good for developed countries, bad for developing ones if they were planning to go down the industrialisation route by using cheap(er) labour to grow their economy.
There is a silver lining though, developing countries could still be primary producers but they would still need to transform these raw materials into usable form by the 3-D printing machines - so there is opportunity to go into manufacturing, just not in the current form that we are used to.
High-tech and specialised manufacturing will stay, I think 3-D would be good for highly designed but non-essential consumer goods like toys, accessories etc.
So let's keep an eye on this, I could be totally wrong on it all :P
So I wonder, what are the few new or not-so-new technologies that could end up changing the world as we know it? I reckon these are - shale gas, cloud computing and 3-d printing.
Shale gas:
Even though I think that cellulosic ethanol is more sustainable, the current infrastructure favours shale gas production in terms of volume & immediacy. Actually, I think it is a good thing that the US can be energy-independent or at least, rely more on Canada instead of the Middle East. Same goes for Israel too. International politics is going to shift in a big way and frankly, it's about time too. Less money going into the Middle East will force them to come to terms with the real world, no more easy money - time to grow up.
Cloud computing:
More thin client devices that can link up to the cloud for more relevant applications, no need to pay huge license fees to use a fraction of the capabilities. It can jumpstart developing economies in Africa because there is less cost involved in laying out communication infrastructure if they use mobile instead of cables and less cost in fees too.
However, there are information security and privacy issues to address but if mainly used for usual stuff, then it should be ok.
Personally, I would still keep certain things off line just to be safe.
3-D printing:
This is interesting but in terms of cost, I'm not so sure. At the onset, it's still more expensive per unit to print one object versus bulk manufacturing - primarily due to the current set-up in the supply chain. However, if over time, the unit cost can come down then it's likely that instead of having huge factory complexes in one place (e.g. China) and transporting made goods all over the world, we will have 3-D retailers who can produce goods on demand in every town and city. Good for developed countries, bad for developing ones if they were planning to go down the industrialisation route by using cheap(er) labour to grow their economy.
There is a silver lining though, developing countries could still be primary producers but they would still need to transform these raw materials into usable form by the 3-D printing machines - so there is opportunity to go into manufacturing, just not in the current form that we are used to.
High-tech and specialised manufacturing will stay, I think 3-D would be good for highly designed but non-essential consumer goods like toys, accessories etc.
So let's keep an eye on this, I could be totally wrong on it all :P
Comments